You may have heard El Niño mentioned a lot in the news recently, often accompanied by dramatic headlines about extreme weather, storms, flooding, or bitterly cold winters.
But what actually is El Niño — and, if you live in the UK, should you be worried about it?
What actually is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring change in the temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above it.
Normally, winds blowing across the Pacific push warm surface water towards Asia and Australia. During an El Niño event, those winds weaken or change, allowing unusually warm water to develop across parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
But I live in Britain! What's that got to do with me?
All this does seem a very long way from the UK. But the world's weather systems are connected. Changes in ocean temperatures can affect large-scale atmospheric circulation, which in turn can influence weather patterns thousands of miles away.
Is there an El Niño happening now?
Yes. As of September 2026, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says El Niño is strengthening and there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026–27.
That makes this a particularly interesting winter for meteorologists.
What could it mean for the UK?
According to the Met Office, El Niño generally increases the chance of a windier and milder start to winter, and a colder end to winter.
For the current event, the Met Office says there is an increased chance of a wetter, stormier and milder late autumn and early winter.
Later in the winter, the atmospheric effects associated with El Niño can increase the potential for colder weather.
The important words here are chance and potential. El Niño changes the odds; it doesn't guarantee the forecast, so Britain could still experience relatively quiet weather during an El Niño winter, just as individual storms, cold snaps or unusually mild periods can happen in years without El Niño.
Does El Niño cause storms in Britain?
El Niño will not, by itself, cause storms in the UK.
British weather is influenced by many interacting systems, including the jet stream, conditions over the North Atlantic, atmospheric pressure patterns, and events in the stratosphere.
El Niño can alter some of those large-scale patterns and make certain types of weather more - or less - likely. So if Britain experiences a stormy winter during an El Niño event, El Niño may be part of the background conditions that made that pattern more likely.
Could we get a very cold winter?
We could — but El Niño doesn't guarantee one.
The Met Office says El Niño can increase the chance of colder conditions later in the winter. One reason is its possible influence on the stratospheric polar vortex and the likelihood of events that can disrupt the normal circulation of winter air.
But there are plenty of other factors involved.
Claims made months in advance that Britain is definitely going to experience a severe freeze, widespread snow, or a particular temperature should therefore be treated cautiously. Dramatic headlines sell newspapers and get clicks, so some news sources will play up the likelihood of severe weather.
Seasonal forecasting is much better at identifying changes in probability than predicting the weather on a particular day several months ahead.
So...should I worry?
No.
El Niño isn't an emergency and there is no reason to start stockpiling supplies because an El Niño event is taking place.
But a stronger-than-usual El Niño is a useful reminder that autumn and winter weather can cause disruption in the UK.
High winds can bring down trees and power lines; heavy rain can cause flooding; cold weather and snow can disrupt roads and public transport.
Power cuts can temporarily affect heating, lighting, communications and the ability to cook.
A few ordinary precautions can make all of those considerably less inconvenient.
What should I actually do?
Prepare for winter, rather than preparing specifically for El Niño.
Make sure you know where your torches are and that they work. Keep a charged power bank available for your phone. Have some food in the house that doesn't depend on being able to cook it. Know how you would keep warm during a power cut. If flooding is a realistic risk where you live, check your local flood risk and know where official flood warnings are published.
It is also worth having important telephone numbers written down somewhere rather than relying entirely on your mobile phone.
The UK government's Prepare campaign recommends many of the same simple measures for dealing with emergencies and disruption, including having a torch, radio, power bank, basic food and water supplies, and important information available on paper.
Read: Preparing for a power cut
Open the Power Cut Preparation checklist
Where should I get weather information?
For actual weather forecasts and severe-weather warnings, use the Met Office.
Long-range outlooks can be useful for understanding what types of weather may be more likely, but they should never be viewed as reliable in the way that a short-range forecast generally is.
As winter approaches, short-range forecasts and official weather warnings become much more useful than speculation about what El Niño might do several months ahead.
Our Weather section links to official UK weather warnings and flood information.
Sources and further reading
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center — ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 10 September 2026
- Met Office — What does the latest long-range forecast tell us and what role could El Niño play this autumn?
- Met Office — Does a hot summer mean a cold winter?
- UK Government — Prepare: Get prepared for emergencies